The ultimate role of nuclear energy was highly dependent on the nuclear capital cost which is the primary determinant of nuclear electricity and nuclear hydrogen costs. Compared to a reference case without clean energy credits, the IRA induced only marginal gains in relative nuclear competitiveness since the current nuclear capital cost is high, all clean energy technologies benefit from clean energy credits, and the duration of the IRA is short. In this analysis, the IRA resulted in total CO2 emissions reduction of 32% by 2035 and 37% by 2050, relative to 2005, and was not able to achieve net-zero emissions. The net-zero scenario requires a more aggressive and long-term sustained effort for emissions reduction. In the net-zero scenario of this analysis, nuclear capital cost sensitivity cases show that with aggressive capital cost reductions, the combined nuclear power capacity for electricity and hydrogen production could be an order of magnitude greater than that for the US today. In contrast, if nuclear capital costs remain high, the nuclear energy contribution is limited. The range of nuclear capacities in the net-zero scenario was 197 – 457 GWe in 2050 and 272 – 913 GWe in 2100 for nuclear capital costs of 6600 – 2600 $/kWe, respectively. Hydrogen provides a pathway for emissions reduction where electrification is not possible, and distributed applications of nuclear power plants for hydrogen production are promising. The nuclear capacity for hydrogen production alone was as high as 63 GWe in 2050 and 152 GWe in 2100. Overall, the nuclear capacity for electricity generation was greater than that for hydrogen production due to greater end-use of electricity relative to hydrogen. Nuclear capital cost reductions had clear benefits for improving the competitiveness of nuclear energy for both electricity and hydrogen production and for contributing to CO2 emissions reduction efforts.
Projected Nuclear Energy Futures Under Deep Decarbonization Policies
Author(s): Son H. Kim (PNNL)
Nuclear energy is a dense and stable source of energy that does not generate carbon emissions during energy production. Heat from nuclear energy can be converted to electricity and hydrogen that can be utilized as carbon-free energy carriers for meeting diverse energy needs of an economy. Thus, nuclear energy has a significant role for addressing global climate change. We explored the contribution of nuclear energy for hydrogen production and electricity generation for the US under the recently implemented Inflation Reduction Act (IRA) and a net-zero carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions scenario by 2050.